El Niño is firmly established and is expected to intensify into a very strong event in the coming months, with significant impacts on rainfall and temperature patterns and associated risks of floods, drought and extreme heat, according to a new update from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
Forecasts from WMO’s Global Producing Centres indicate an “exceptionally high likelihood of nearly 100%” that El Niño will persist through February 2027.
This is the first time a WMO El Niño/La Niña Update has been so unequivocal, reflecting the strong agreement across WMO’s extensive network.
Fueled by exceptionally warm ocean conditions across the tropical Pacific, El Niño is expected to strengthen further in the coming months, reaching a very strong intensity before peaking towards the end of this year, with climate impacts continuing well into 2027.
“El Niño is being supersized before our eyes. The science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up. Sea surface temperatures are rising, temperatures keep climbing, and the world is in the danger zone of extreme weather.
The race now is between rising risks and our commitment to take climate action and protect people. We must win that race,” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres.
“El Niño in Spanish means boy child – but it has the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies across the world. We are already seeing disruption and devastation from droughts and floods, and we expect these impacts to increase as El Niño intensifies,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.
“This exceptional El Niño demands exceptional preparation and response. Never before in the 50-year history of the World Meteorological Organization have we launched such a major mobilization with National Meteorological and Hydrological Services, which are on the frontline of delivering forecasts and services to save lives and livelihoods,” she said.
“WMO is committed to working closely with partners across the United Nations and humanitarian system to provide the climate intelligence and insights needed to support disaster management and climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, health, energy and water resources,” she said. “We have no time to lose.”
The WMO El Niño/La Niña Updates are the world’s most authoritative source of information for governments and decision-makers.
These seasonal forecasts are based on a consensus of models from WMO Global Producing Centres, experts from National Meteorological and Hydrological Services, and climate prediction centres around the world.
For East Africa, the expected development of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole adds another important dimension to the forecast. WMO expects the IOD to reach a seasonal mean of about 0.9°C during September-November 2026.
Together with the strengthening El Niño, these climate drivers could alter rainfall and temperature patterns across the region, with implications for agriculture, water resources, infrastructure and disaster preparedness.
However, WMO cautions that the strength of El Niño alone does not determine the severity or direction of impacts in individual countries, meaning Uganda and its neighbours will need to rely on updated, locally specific forecasts and early-warning information.
Uganda is already preparing for the expected strengthening of El Niño. The Ministry of Water and Environment’s September-December 2026 seasonal outlook forecasts near-normal to above-normal rainfall across most parts of the country, accompanied by warmer-than-average temperatures.
The Ministry said the intensifying El Niño and an expected transition to a positive Indian Ocean Dipole around October are likely to enhance rainfall, particularly across central, northern and eastern Uganda.
The rains are expected to peak between late October and November and could extend into January 2027 in several parts of the country.
Sea surface temperatures across the central-eastern equatorial Pacific, the region at the heart of El Niño, are already well above average – one of the tell-tale signs of El Niño – and are continuing to rise.
Even more exceptional warmth is present below the ocean surface. In some areas, subsurface ocean temperatures were more than 8°C above average during July and early August.
Together, the surface and subsurface ocean conditions provide strong support for continued El Niño conditions and the potential for further strengthening during the coming months, the Update says.
Confidence in the outlook is high. Strong and mutually reinforcing oceanic and atmospheric signals, together with close agreement among seasonal prediction systems, indicate that El Niño will persist at least into early 2027. However, the increased rainfall comes with significant risks.
The Ministry warns of flooding, flash floods, landslides, mudslides, lightning and strong storms, with particular concern for the Rwenzori, Kigezi and Elgon sub-regions, the Lake Kyoga basin and parts of Kampala and other urban areas.
It specifically identifies rivers including Nyamwamba, Manafwa, Namatala, Kafu, Awoja and Onyama as potential flood-risk areas.
The Ugandan forecast broadly reinforces the WMO’s warning that El Niño’s effects will differ by location.
While the global agency warns of major shifts in rainfall and temperature patterns, Uganda’s own forecast points to enhanced rainfall rather than a uniform weather outcome, while also warning that the same rains could bring both agricultural benefits and serious risks to communities, infrastructure, health and food security.
El Niño and La Niña are among the most powerful naturally occurring influences on the global climate system.
A very strong event increases the likelihood of major changes in rainfall, temperatures and atmospheric circulation across many regions of the world. However, the strength of an El Niño event alone does not determine how severe its impacts will be in any individual country or region. Its effects vary according to location and season and can be modified by other climate drivers, including conditions in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans.
WMO has therefore issued a complementary Global Seasonal Climate Update, which brings together information about El Niño and other major climate drivers, enabling a more refined picture of expected conditions.
For September-November 2026, WMO multi-model forecasts indicate an increased likelihood of above-normal temperatures across almost all land areas, alongside rainfall patterns showing a pronounced and classic atmospheric response to the strong Pacific El Niño.
A positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is also expected to develop, reaching a September-October-November 2026 seasonal mean value of 0.9°C.
Meanwhile, the equatorial Atlantic basin is forecast to remain generally warm, with sea surface temperatures in both the North and South Tropical Atlantic staying above normal.
These conditions may reinforce, weaken or alter typical El Niño impacts in different regions. More detailed and locally applicable information is provided through WMO Regional Climate Centres, WMO Regional Climate Outlook Forums and National Meteorological and Hydrological Services.
El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), one of the most powerful naturally occurring climate patterns on Earth. El Niño is characterized by a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. It typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts around nine to twelve months.
El Niño generally begins developing between March and June and reaches its peak intensity between November and February. Its impact on global temperatures can extend beyond the period of peak ocean warming and may be most pronounced in the year after development.
Because El Niño can reshape weather and climate patterns thousands of kilometres away from the tropical Pacific, reliable forecasts provide governments, humanitarian agencies, businesses and communities with valuable time to prepare. WMO Members and partners will therefore continue to closely monitor the evolution of the event and regularly update forecasts of its likely regional impacts.
National Meteorological and Hydrological Services remain the authoritative source of official warnings and locally relevant climate information. El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon and is not caused by climate change, although climate change is affecting the background conditions in which El Niño events occur-URN. Give us feedback on this story through our email: kamwokyatimes@gmail.com
