By KT Reporter
Sections of Ugandans have expressed concern about the likely impact of the post-election violence in Tanzania and its neighbors in terms of trade and politics at large.
Tanzania, one of the core members of the revived East African Community, had been described as one of the jewels of Africa because of the relative peace and stability.
It faces an unprecedented wave of violence after the election. It is estimated that over 700 people perished after voting in the election won by Samia Suluhu Hassan with 98% of the vote.
In Uganda, some are questioning whether President Samia Suluhu Hassan and her Chama Cha Mapinduzi party are still committed to democratic values as required by the EACT treaty.
The universally acceptable principles of good governance are a condition precedent for any country to become a member of, be associated with, or participate in any activities of the Community under Article 3 (b) of the Treaty.
The principle of good governance is one of the fundamental and operational principles of the Community as provided for under articles 6 and 7 of the EAC Treaty. Good governance, democracy, the rule of law, and human rights as foundational principles that member states must adhere to.
Some Tanzanian citizens have, on the other hand, said what has just happened is likely to ruin Tanzania’s image as a peaceful country.
Observers say the level of violence and political intolerance has been building since 28 October 2015, when Tanzania went to the polls for the fifth time after the return of multi-party elections in 1995.
Timothy Msobor Chemonges, Executive Director of the Centre for Policy Analysis (CEPA), told URN that what is being witnessed is not just an election dispute.
“It’s a test of Tanzania’s democratic resilience, a stress test for the entire East African region. Peace is not merely the absence of war; it is the presence of justice and accountability,” Chemonges adds.
The election observers said key opposition leaders were either in jail or had been banned from participating in the campaigns.
The joke on social media in Uganda and Kenya was that Samia was contesting against Suluhu. And before the internet closures after voting day, some Tanzanian citizens openly compared her to President Iddi Amina Dada. Months before the election, there were reports of widespread abduction of Tanzanian opposition politicians and civilians.
Some have noted with concern that the country known for brokering peace in the region has degenerated into a single-party regime or, at worst, an autocracy. Still, some leaders urge caution. Stephen Odong, a member of the East African Legislative Assembly (EALA), insists it’s too early to draw grim conclusions.
“Tanzania remains a cornerstone of regional stability,” Odong says. “Unless we witness prolonged instability, the EAC’s operations will continue smoothly.”
However, Odong said the communication blackout and sweeping arrests make it difficult to know the full extent of the crisis.
Dr. Ekwaro Obuku, a Ugandan physician and policy analyst who has spent years observing Tanzanian politics, says the shift has been dramatic. “When Magufuli was alive, citizens were on top, government officials served them,” he recalls. “After he died, the hierarchy reversed. The bureaucrat went back up, and the citizen went down.”
He notes that the Fragile States Index once ranked Tanzania as East Africa’s most stable nation, thanks to Swahili-driven unity and low ethnic divisions. “Yet even that model has now imploded, not exploded, but quietly folded inward,” he warns.
Ordinary Tanzanians now question whether the government’s insistence on “stability” masks a deeper erosion of civic space. Protests are being quelled, and opposition leaders silenced. “Democracy in Tanzania has become an elite conversation,” says a university lecturer in Dar es Salaam who asked not to be named. “People are watching, but they no longer believe their voices matter.”
Ibrahim Ssemujju Nganda, MP for Kira Municipality, sees the Tanzanian turbulence as a symptom of entrenched regional power structures. “In Tanzania, you’re not just dealing with a president, you’re dealing with an institution: the Chama Cha Mapinduzi – CCM,” he says.
“It’s the system itself that’s in crisis.” He notes that even President Yoweri Museveni had begun redirecting strategic projects such as the oil pipeline through Tanzania, believing it to be a safer partner than Kenya. “Now even Tanzania, which seemed stable, is in turmoil. Where do we go next, Rwanda? Congo?” he asks. Ssemujju adds that the region is being run by what he calls “political mafias.” Ssemujju
“Martha Karua once said we have mafias running East African states, and she’s right. If we don’t combine efforts to fight this trend, we’re headed for doom.”
Dr. Yusuf Serunkuma of Makerere Institute of Social Research (MISR), speaking to URN in an interview on Wednesday, said Africa’s recurring electoral crises, from Kenya to Ethiopia, and now Tanzania, are not about democracy versus dictatorship, but about control over resources.
“The problem is that we assume our elections are about democracy. They’re not,” he argues. “Even coups aren’t about autocracy. These binaries are misleading. What Africa is really battling over is governance, leadership, and who controls resources.”
Serunkuma sees Tanzania’s turmoil as part of a wider continental power struggle between local sovereignty and global capitalist influence.
“When leaders like Samia feel cornered by foreign interests working through local allies, they become authoritarian because they see resistance as treason,” he explains. “This is the same playbook used in Venezuela.”
He warns journalists not to treat the crisis as purely organic: “There are visible hands, tactical, sophisticated actors. We need deeper investigations, not recycled democracy slogans.”
The international community is treading carefully. The African Union has urged “dialogue and restraint,” while the European Union has expressed concern over shrinking civic space. Yet, the broader question looms: Can Tanzania still be trusted as East Africa’s stabilizer, the host of the EAC, and once a mediator for peace across the Great Lakes region?
The answer depends on whether President Samia’s government can restore trust at home without silencing dissent. “This is a moment of reckoning, not just for Dodoma, but for every democracy lover on the continent,” says Chemonges.
“Tanzania’s future will signal whether East Africa leans toward openness or doubles down on control.”
As the dust settles, one truth stands out: the fate of Tanzania’s democracy, and East Africa’s democratic promise, will be shaped not by the ballot count, but by how the country chooses to heal after it.
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