Uganda’s oil journey has been defined less by extraction than by expectation — a revolving door of ministers, shifting deadlines, and a promise of “first oil” that has survived nearly two decades of political optimism and policy delays. In 2013, Irene Muloni, then Minister for Energy and Mineral Development, was upbeat at a high-level dialogue, confidently assuring the country that oil would soon be extracted from the ground to power Uganda’s growth and development.
Maria Kiwanuka, then Minister for Finance, Planning and Economic Development, responded with a characteristic light jab: “Hon. Irene, the oil is yours for as long as it remains under the ground. Immediately you get it out, it will be mine.” Earlier, in 2006, President Yoweri Museveni had announced that the government intended to establish an initial local refinery, adding that actual oil production was expected to begin by 2009 — the first projected “first oil” deadline.
Muloni, therefore, looked forward to making history by delivering Uganda’s first oil, while Kiwanuka anticipated managing and utilising the resulting revenues. However, both would later leave office without seeing first oil. Two years after Kiwanuka’s 2011 appointment, she was replaced by Matia Kasaija in 2013. Muloni remained in cabinet until 2019, when she was dropped in a reshuffle. Neither of them oversaw the first drop of oil.
The oil and gas dream began to take shape during the tenures of Dr Ezra Suruma and Syda Bbumba as Ministers of Finance and Energy, respectively. At that stage, however, the sector was still in its infancy, dominated by exploration and surveys. As Finance Minister, Suruma’s role in the sector was largely limited to early policy groundwork for future resource management.
Bbumba, on the other hand, played a more direct and controversial role in the energy ministry. Her tenure focused on early exploration frameworks and the signing of key agreements, including tax exemptions that later attracted parliamentary scrutiny. These included the granting of a capital gains tax exemption to Tullow Oil. During a subsequent parliamentary inquiry, she admitted signing some agreements without thoroughly reading them, saying she relied on clearance from the Solicitor General.
She also announced the discovery of commercially viable deposits estimated at 3.5 billion barrels before being moved to the Ministry of Gender, where Daudi Migereko replaced her. Migereko projected that Uganda could achieve first oil by 2010. He indicated that Hardman Resources would present a development programme by 2008 to secure a petroleum production licence. Based on exploration results, he estimated production at about 14,000 barrels per day. However, he left office before his projected timelines materialised, and more than a decade later, the first oil is still pending.
After Suruma left the cabinet in 2009, Bbumba was moved to Finance, while Hilary Onek took over the Energy and Mineral Development docket. Onek, known for his assertive style, aggressively pursued capital gains tax from foreign oil companies and attempted to block Tullow Oil’s acquisition of Heritage Oil assets in favour of ENI — a move that triggered divisions within cabinet.
He also faced intense parliamentary scrutiny following allegations, amplified by WikiLeaks cables, that officials had received bribes linked to oil deals involving ENI. Onek consistently denied the claims, called for investigations, and was eventually cleared by a parliamentary ad hoc probe. He also clashed with civil society over transparency in the sector. At one point, he cautioned NGOs against demanding disclosure of Production Sharing Agreements (PSAs), famously advising them to “do something else like looking after orphans.” He later committed to tabling the PSAs before Parliament, which he eventually did.
When Kiwanuka and Muloni returned to cabinet in 2011, expectations around the first oil were high. However, lessons from earlier controversies pushed Parliament and government toward tighter regulation and stronger oversight of the emerging sector. Kiwanuka championed the Public Finance Bill, which later became the Public Finance Management Act, arguing that oil revenues should not be treated as “offshore” funds. She pushed for strict oversight through the Auditor General and Bank of Uganda to ensure accountability in oil revenue management.
She reinforced this position in her exchanges with Muloni, stressing that oil belonged to Energy while underground, but to Finance once extracted. Despite efforts by both ministries to harmonise revenue management, Parliament frequently resisted, demanding separate legislation and greater transparency amid fears of corruption and mismanagement.
These tensions contributed to delays but also led to major legal and institutional reforms, including the creation of the National Oil Company and clearer legislative frameworks defining how oil revenues would be appropriated. Kiwanuka exited the cabinet in 2016 and was replaced by Matia Kasaija, while Muloni remained until 2021, when she was replaced by Ruth Nankabirwa.
The push toward the final investment decision
Kasaija assumed office as deadlines for commercial production had already shifted to 2018, later extended to 2020, and then 2025. His role focused on mobilising financing for major oil infrastructure projects. These included capitalisation of the Uganda National Oil Company (UNOC), land acquisition for the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP), the development of Kabalega International Airport and the industrial park, as well as continuation of earlier oil road projects.
The momentum was strengthened by intervention from former Tanzanian President John Magufuli, who urged Uganda to prioritise long-term oil revenues over disputes over “small tax money.” This paved the way for the Final Investment Decision (FID) in 2022, unlocking an estimated $15 billion investment for the Tilenga, Kingfisher, and EACOP projects. The agreement pushed Uganda closer to first oil, with projections targeting production within the following years.
The development boosted confidence within the government, with projections suggesting Uganda could earn about $2 billion annually once production begins. President Yoweri Museveni also stated that oil production would significantly reduce reliance on external borrowing. In the 2024/2025 financial year, the government allocated a record 920 billion shillings to the oil and gas sector in preparation for first oil.
However, while Kasaija focused on financing infrastructure, Nankabirwa grappled with sustained opposition from local and international NGOs concerned about environmental and human rights impacts of the EACOP project. Some advocacy groups targeted financing institutions, contributing to withdrawals or hesitation by certain investors. This led to further adjustments to timelines, pushing expectations to July 2026.
Throughout this period, Nankabirwa maintained optimism that the project would stay on course, while Kasaija continued mobilising funds for infrastructure expansion — a strategy critics described as increasing fiscal exposure to the sector. Both ministers were eventually dropped from the cabinet just months before the latest projected deadline, once again without witnessing first oil.
The new ministerial pairing of Monica Musenero at Energy and Mineral Development and Henry Musasizi at Finance now inherits the long-delayed promise of Uganda’s oil era. If timelines hold, they may oversee the long-awaited first oil — finally transferring it from underground potential to fiscal reality, in the spirit of Maria Kiwanuka’s 2013 remark: that oil belongs to Energy while underground but becomes Finance’s the moment it is extracted-URN. Give us feedback on this story through our email: kamwokyatimes@gmail.com
