Pastoral communities in the Karamoja Cluster have been warned of above-normal rainfall and flooding as the region faces a strong El Niño in the October to December (OND) 2026 season.
According to the seasonal forecast released by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Centre (ICPAC) during the Sixth Sub-Regional Climate Outlook Forum held at Cradle Hotel in Lodwar, Kenya, there is a 63% probability of above-normal rainfall in the Karamoja Cluster, which covers Karamoja in Uganda, Turkana and West Pokot in Kenya, South Omo in Ethiopia and parts of South Sudan.
The forecast indicates a delayed onset of rains in Karamoja, compared to an early to normal onset expected in the Mandera Cluster (90% probability) and Moyale-Borana Cluster (75%).
The forum, held under the theme “Harnessing climate services for early action and resilience in the greater Horn of Africa region in the face of a strong El Niño,” featured meteorologists, government leaders, pastoralists, indigenous forecasters and journalists from Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopia, S. Sudan.
Presenting the outcome statement, the Coordinator of the IGAD Drought Disaster Resilience and Sustainability Initiative, Mubarak Mabuya, said analysis of sea-surface temperatures shows 1997 and 2023 as analogue years, periods that brought unusually wetter-than-average seasons in the region.
“Consistently above-average temperatures are expected across all clusters,” Mabuya said, urging fortifying of flood preparedness by revising contingency plans, pre-positioning critical supplies, safeguarding vital infrastruc ture, and delivering timely early-warning information to communities.
He noted that while the rains will improve pasture, water sources and crop prospects for agro-pastoralists in Karamoja, they also pose serious risks of riverine and flash floods, waterlogging, displacement and outbreaks of water and vector-borne diseases.
Traditional forecasters echoed the scientific warning. Edome Apuwa, a traditional forecaster from Lodwar, warned that the October-November rains are likely to be destructive, beginning in Turkana South and Turkana East, areas that directly border Karamoja and share grazing and migration routes with Karamojong herders.
Apuwa advised residents to avoid crossing swollen rivers, noting that downpours could persist for up to eight hours, from morning until 2:00 pm. He also cautioned that malaria outbreaks may follow the flooding and called on communities to move away from riverbeds.
For Karamoja, which has suffered prolonged dry spells and food insecurity, the forecast presents both an opportunity and a threat. Improved pasture could boost livestock production, but flash floods along rivers like the Nalekas, Longorikipi and cross-border areas of Turkana could cut off access to markets and displace families living in lowlands.
The three-day forum was convened by ICPAC in collaboration with the IGAD Centre for Pastoral Areas and Livestock Development, the Conflict Early Warning and Response Mechanism and IDDRSI.
Experts emphasized turning forecasts into action by disseminating climate information in local languages such as Ngakarimojong, Pokot and Turkana through radio, elders and extension officers, and aligning traditional and scientific forecasting to help herders prepare early-URN. Give us feedback on this story through our email: kamwokyatimes@gmail.com
