By KT Reporter
The UN Climate Change Conference in Belém wrapped up on Saturday with decisions that reflect both a shared desire for global action and increasingly polarized interests.
An analysis shared by the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) on Sunday shares the gains and the outstanding issues from the conference attended by over 190 countries, including Uganda.
The institute has gained a reputation as an independent think tank working to create a world where people and the planet thrive. Uganda Radio Network gained access to the IISD outcome briefing that normally comes at the end of two weeks of negotiation.
It said this year’s conference—which the Presidency had framed as the “implementation COP”—was meant to focus less on what the world must do, rather on how to make it all happen.
With major commitments already on the table to tackle global warming and ensure we can adapt to the worsening impacts of climate change, negotiators were expected to pin down tools, indicators, and processes to turn aspirations into action. But deep divisions on finance, trade measures, mitigation pathways, and other areas stalled progress on these decisions until the very last moment.
The outcome of the conference left many disappointed, including more than 80 countries that pushed for a roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels in the final deal. Those who supported a stronger outcome on climate finance for developing countries were equally discouraged.
Still, there were some positive outcomes and a clear desire to make progress in the months and years ahead, including through collaboration outside of the UNFCCC process. “While deep divisions were on display in Belém, we also saw strong ambition from countries to continue working together on the transition away from fossil fuels—this work will go beyond COP 30.”
Patricia Fuller, President and CEO “While deep divisions were on display in Belém, we also saw strong ambition from countries to continue working together on the transition away from fossil fuels,” said Patricia Fuller, IISD President and CEO, “this work will go beyond COP 30.”
Climate adaptation also took up much of the spotlight at the conference, which in itself is positive. “The Mutirão decision effectively keeps adaptation finance on the negotiating table and signals political will to support those countries impacted most by climate change,” says Anne Hammill, Associate Vice President, and Resilience at IISD.
“Political battles compromised what could have been stronger outcomes on the technical work of implementation, but these efforts will continue through National Adaptations Plans and other processes.”
A New Climate Finance Work Programme.
Although not on the official agenda, climate finance was in the spotlight at COP 30, with discussions focused on how countries would deliver the promise of the New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance that was adopted in Baku last year, including through scaling up the provision of public finance under Article 9.1 of the Paris Agreement.
The Mutirão decision—a high-level political text proposed by the COP Presidency and adopted by Parties—recognizes the urgency of this issue by establishing a two-year work programme on climate finance to ensure countries continue discussing the implementation of the Baku commitment.
The new program could provide a platform for political follow-up on the Baku to Belém roadmap to scale up climate finance from both public and private sources for developing countries to at least USD 1.3 trillion per year by 2035—finance essential for their climate action in the next decade.
It also offers a space for developing countries to continue pushing for the provision of public finance from developed countries to meet the core USD 300 billion mobilization goal from the Baku decision.
Adaptation Finance to Triple, Delivery Delayed
The Mutirão decision also called for the tripling of adaptation finance by 2035. This new goal is a welcomed continuation beyond the sunset of the previous goal agreed at COP 26 in Glasgow. It sends an important political signal on the need to address the widening adaptation finance gap and helps maintain pressure on developed countries to scale up their support.
However, it does not match the level of ambition that developing countries and civil society had consistently pushed for in Belém. For one, it has been weakened from the originally proposed 2030 target and does not mention a specific baseline. As climate impacts worsen, a 2035 target does not meet the growing adaptation finance need of developing countries and will delay urgently needed action to protect their communities, economies, and ecosystems.
Contested Adaptation Indicators One of this COP’s core priorities was agreeing on a set of indicators for the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA)—a technical process that became tightly intertwined with high-level negotiations on adaptation finance under the Mutirão decision. Unfortunately, COP 30 failed to deliver a coherent outcome on indicators for the GGA.
The adopted list of 60 indicators includes key elements to assess global adaptation progress, including indicators for tracking means of implementation (finance, technology transfer, and capacity building), one indicator on gender-responsive adaptation policies, and suggestions for disaggregation (such as by gender, age, geographies and ecosystems). However, last-minute changes to the list of indicators that were carefully designed by a group of experts over the last two years have compromised their credibility and will make them more difficult to operationalize.
Amidst confusion and objections to the text in the closing plenary, the next steps for technical work on the indicators remain vague, with hints that the set will see further revisions until 2027.
As countries work to strengthen their national monitoring, evaluation, and learning systems for adaptation, the indicators should have provided them with a way forward.
Unfortunately, the adopted indicators fall short in guiding them in this process, which will inform the development their second Biennial Transparency Reports—as a result, we could potentially miss a window to provide evidence and visibility for adaptation as part of the second global stocktake.
After two years of negotiations, the decision on the National Adaptation Plan (NAP) assessment was finally adopted.
The outcome of the NAP assessment recognized the progress of developing countries’ adaptation planning and implementation, while pointing out the challenges faced by developing countries in accessing the necessary resources and climate information to carry out their NAP process and implement adaptation actions. It also highlighted the importance of integrating Indigenous and traditional knowledge and a gender-responsive approach in the NAP process as well as the potential of nature-based solutions and ecosystem-based adaptation.
However, the decision does not provide any meaningful guidance on how to scale up support for developing countries’ NAP processes, nor does it include key elements such as explicit mentions of adaptation mainstreaming and synergies and policy coherence with the National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan process.
Fossil Fuel Roadmap Pushed Out
Amid all the discussions in Belém, one question echoed through the conference halls: where is the space to build on commitments to move away from fossil fuels, phase out fossil fuel subsidies, and triple renewables—and how do we close the ambition gap in nationally determined contributions (NDCs), which is still far from delivering on this promise? By the end of the week, 88 countries had thrown their support behind developing a roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels, pushing to anchor the idea in the Mutirão decision so work can advance over the coming year. However, the final text did not reflect these calls, containing no language on a roadmap for transitioning away from fossil fuels.
Draft language on fossil fuel subsidy reform didn’t make it into the Mutirão decision either. The final text launched the “Belém Mission to 1.5” with COP 30 and 31 Presidencies tasked with delivering a report by COP 31 on enabling ambition and implementation of NDCs and NAPs. However, there is no clear hook for the Mission to link back into the process.
The decision also launched the “Global Implementation Accelerator” meant to accelerate implementation to keep 1.5°C in reach and support countries to implement their NDCs and NAPS. These two processes, if designed and delivered well, could still offer steps towards a roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels.
On just transition, the final decision agreed to develop a just transition mechanism, aiming to enhance international cooperation, technical assistance, capacity-building, and knowledge-sharing, which had been a key ask from civil society groups. The establishment of this mechanism represents a key step forward in making the Just Transition Work Programme more actionable. Trade Talks Continue Trade emerged as one of the hottest issues at these climate talks, surfacing in presidency consultations and spilling into other negotiation areas.
The flashpoint was the so-called unilateral trade measures, which include border carbon adjustments and deforestation-related import regulations. Some parties view these measures as disadvantaging developing economies and creating imbalances in decarbonizing the global economy. In the end, the political consensus on this sticking point was to hold three dialogues at the subsidiary bodies on enhancing international cooperation in this area:
The result of those exchanges will be further reported at a high-level event in 2028.
Gender Action Plan Agreed
The Belém talks successfully concluded the negotiations on the much-anticipated Gender Action Plan (GAP).
This includes many essential elements, including the use of disaggregated data and gender analysis for decision-making and collaboration among gender, climate change, and other relevant actors to advance gender-responsive climate action.
The call to integrate gender in national climate policies and plans, as well as reporting and communications under the UNFCCC, will help to ensure there is accountability for implementing these commitments across the different streams of climate action.
The recognition that multidimensional factors—such as race, disability, and age—shape people’s experiences with climate change and their ability to engage in climate action is fundamental for equity, and strengthening the evidence base on this will be essential as countries implement the GAP to deliver gender-responsive climate action over the next decade.
Meanwhile, UN Women welcomed the outcome at COP30 and, in particular, the adoption of the Belém Gender Action Plan (GAP) as a blueprint for action in the next nine years. It is said, “This is a crucial step forward that keeps gender equality at the centre of the climate agenda – and is fundamental to delivering tangible results for all women and girls on the front lines of the climate crisis.”
The decision introduces important elements on health, violence against women and girls, and protection mechanisms for women environmental defenders, care work, decent work and quality jobs, and socially just transitions.
“UN Women stands ready to work with all Parties and relevant stakeholders to bridge the gaps, so the Gender Action Plan becomes a tool for inclusive, effective and sustainable implementation for gender-responsive climate action that benefit women and girls in all their diversity”, said Sarah Hendriks, Director of the Policy, Programme and Intergovernmental Division, UN Women.
What’s Next?
COP 31 will convene in Türkiye with Australia playing a role as “President of Negotiations.” In an innovative decision, delegates agreed with a compromise arrangement that was achieved after many months of stalemate between the two potential hosts.
Antalya will be the host city for COP 31, with Türkiye signing the host-country agreement with the UNFCCC, organizing the World Leaders Summit, and serving as the COP 31 President-Designate.
Türkiye will also appoint the High-Level Champion and the Youth Champion and lead the Action Agenda. However, Australia will nominate a representative to preside over the negotiations and will host a pre-COP in the Pacific.
So when does the work begin? Brazil wants to keep the momentum going and promised to deliver roadmaps for deforestation and a just transition away from fossil fuels in the coming year. President Lula is bringing the fossil fuel transition roadmap to Johannesburg this weekend—where the leaders of Brazil, Australia, and Türkiye met with their counterparts from other major economies for the G20 summit and adopted a declaration on the climate crisis and other global challenges despite the US’ objection and boycott.
In the face of the US’ decision to step back from a leadership role, stepped-up roles for other leaders will be even more important. The innovative arrangement for COP 31 leadership has pledged to promote solidarity between developing and developed countries and to bring attention to the Pacific Island states. COP 32, in Ethiopia, will be the first climate COP under the leadership of a least developed country.
In addition to these leaders for the global process, all eyes should also turn to domestic implementation of NDCs—as well as the countries that have yet to submit an NDC. Given the large number of countries in support of transitioning away from fossil fuels at this COP, we can only hope that these countries speed up their domestic implementation of the transition.
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