By KT Reporter
The Elgon, Lango, Acholi, and Rwenzori sub-regions have been mapped as electoral violence hotspots, according to a new analysis.
The report, released on Thursday during the national launch of the “Let’s Talk Peace Campaign” by the Netherlands Institute for Multiparty Democracy (NIMD), in partnership with the European Union, warns that election violence in Uganda is systemic, deeply rooted in the country’s political history, governance structures, and the conduct of state institutions.
Primus Atukwatse Bahiigi, the Institute’s Country Director, said electoral violence has become a recurring threat to democracy, political stability, and human security in Uganda. He attributed this to the complex interplay of political, socio-economic, ethnic, and historical factors.
The Let’s Talk Peace Campaign seeks to bring together political parties, security agencies, statutory bodies, civil society, religious leaders, and the media in both national and regional dialogues. Its goals include mobilising stakeholders against violence, drafting a national strategy to curb electoral conflict, and rebuilding public trust in democratic institutions.
“These sub-regions mirror Uganda’s broader political landscape,” the report noted. “Party rivalries, ethnic divisions, and regional inequalities often align with partisan divides, making elections a flashpoint for conflict and hindering the political participation of young men and women.”
The report identifies several factors expected to shape the 2026 elections. The key factors include commercialised politics, a “do-or-die affair,” with unchecked campaign spending and frustration-fueled violence, polarisation and intolerance, distrust in institutions, specifically the Electoral Commission, Judiciary, and security forces, eroding public confidence, prompting some actors to resort to violence.
The outsized role of the military and specialised police units, often perceived as partisan, has further inflamed tensions, while digital manipulation has been used to spread misinformation, hate speech, and propaganda. At the same time, a shrinking civic space has undermined civic education, election observation, and peacebuilding efforts, and widespread unemployment, poverty, and political exclusion have left young people vulnerable to mobilisation for partisan violence.
Regional hotspots include the Rwenzori region, where recurring ethnic tensions tied to governance and identity issues continue to make the area volatile. In Acholi and Lango, the unresolved Apaa land conflict and the presence of Balaalo settlements risk inflaming ethnic disputes. In the Elgon sub-region, intra- and inter-party rivalries, most recently evident during the NRM primaries, are expected to be key triggers of violence.
Meanwhile, Kampala, as the country’s political and economic hub, faces intense contestation driven by youth gangs, misinformation, voter bribery, and heavy security deployments.
The report recommends a multi-stakeholder strategy, Early Warning and Response Mechanisms (EWRMs) in hotspots, structured dialogues to address longstanding and emerging conflicts, intensified civic education campaigns, engagement with security agencies on codes of conduct, mediation, and conflict-mitigation programs during the election period.
Ruth Ssekindi of the Uganda Human Rights Commission confirmed that the Commission’s own mapping aligns with NIMD’s findings. She emphasised the need for sustained civic and human rights education, warning that patriotism and collective responsibility are waning.
Benjamin Katana, Vice Chairperson of the National Consultative Forum and Treasurer of the National Unity Platform (NUP), dismissed the prospects of peaceful elections, accusing the state of capturing key institutions and weaponising security agencies against the opposition.
Police Director of Operations, AIGP Frank Mwesigwa, insisted the force has mapped potential hotspots and will ensure credible elections. He defended the arrests of opposition politicians, saying Article 21 of the Constitution mandates that police enforce the law “regardless of political affiliation.”
Electoral Commission spokesperson Julius Mucunguzi reassured Ugandans that the body is committed to impartiality, citing the revised electoral roadmap, updated voter registers, and ongoing candidate nominations.
European Union Ambassador Jan Sadek highlighted the Let’s Talk Peace Caravan, a mobile hub for intergenerational dialogue and fact-checking, as a symbol of strategic partnership, not foreign interference.
Gender Minister Betty Amongi echoed concerns over youth unemployment and exclusion, calling them “fertile ground for radicalisation.” She urged Ugandans to address the structural causes of violence rather than focusing only on its symptoms.
Uganda has held 11 electoral cycles since independence, seven of which (63.6%) have been marred by violence. The problem worsened from 2001 onwards, escalating in 2006 and 2011, peaking in 2016 and 2021, and recurring in incidents such as the Kasese palace attack in 2016 and the 2018 Arua by-election.
The 2021 elections left at least 50 people dead, saw opposition leaders arrested, and were marked by selective enforcement of COVID-19 restrictions, arbitrary detentions, and an internet shutdown. Afrobarometer surveys show 49% of Ugandans fear electoral violence and 62% cite political rivalry as its main driver.
Women, in particular, face gender-based violence when participating in politics.
Uganda’s 2026 elections are expected to be highly contentious. The scars of past violence, deep-seated grievances, youth unemployment, and rising political intolerance make the stakes high. Yet, with coordinated action from government, civil society, and development partners, the polls could still serve as a platform for democratic consolidation if urgent steps are taken to prevent history from repeating itself.
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