By KT Reporter
Renewable sources of electricity generation are continuing to grow strongly around the world, with global capacity expected to more than double by 2030.
The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) medium-term forecast says led by the rapid rise of solar PV, renewables’ expansion is taking place in a context of supply chain strains, grid integration challenges, financial pressures and policy shifts.
Renewables 2025, the IEA’s main annual report on the sector, sees global renewable power capacity increasing by 4 600 gigawatts (GW) by 2030 – roughly the equivalent of adding China, the European Union and Japan’s total power generation capacity combined.
It predicts that solar PV will account for around 80% of the global increase in renewable power capacity over the next five years – driven by low costs and faster permitting timeframes – followed by wind, hydro, bioenergy and geothermal.
Geothermal installations are on course to hit historic highs in key markets, including the United States, Japan, Indonesia and a host of emerging and developing economies.
Rising grid integration challenges are renewing interest in pumped-storage hydropower, whose growth is expected to be almost 80% faster over the next five years compared with the previous five.
In emerging economies across Asia, the Middle East and Africa, cost competitiveness and stronger policy support are spurring faster growth of renewables, with many governments introducing new auction programmes and raising their targets.
The reports further indicates that India is on course to become the second-largest renewables growth market globally, after China, and is expected to comfortably reach its ambitious target by 2030.
At the company level, confidence in renewables remains strong. Most major developers have either maintained or raised their 2030 deployment targets compared with last year, reflecting resilience and optimism in the sector.
Offshore wind stands apart, however, with a weaker growth outlook – around a quarter lower than in last year’s report – resulting from policy changes in key markets, supply chain bottlenecks and rising costs.
“The growth in global renewable capacity in the coming years will be dominated by solar PV – but with wind, hydropower, bioenergy and geothermal all contributing, too,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol.
“Solar PV is on course to account for some 80% of the increase in the world’s renewable capacity over the next five years. In addition to growth in established markets, solar is set to surge in economies such as Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and several Southeast Asian countries. As renewables’ role in electricity systems rises in many countries, policymakers need to play close attention to supply chain security and grid integration challenges.”
The report’s outlook for global renewable capacity growth is revised downward slightly compared with last year, mainly due to policy changes in the United States and in China. The early phase-out of federal tax incentives along with other regulatory changes in the United States lowered our growth expectations for renewables in the US market by almost 50% compared with last year’s forecast. China’s shift from fixed tariffs to auctions is impacting project economics, resulting in a reduction in our forecast for renewables’ growth in the Chinese market.
Global supply chains for solar PV and rare earth elements used in wind turbines remain heavily concentrated in China, underscoring ongoing risks to supply chain security. While new investment to diversify supply chains is taking place in countries around the world, concentration in China for key production segments is set to remain above 90% through 2030.
At the same time, the rapid rise of variable renewables is placing increasing pressure on electricity systems. Curtailment and negative price events are already appearing in more markets, signalling the need for urgent investment in grids, storage and flexible generation.
Several countries are beginning to respond with new capacity and storage auctions, but much more will be needed to ensure that variable renewables are integrated in a cost-efficient and secure way.
The role of renewables in transport and heating is expected to rise in the coming years, but only slightly. In the transport sector, their share of energy use is forecast to increase from 4% today to 6% in 2030, driven mainly by renewable electricity for EVs in China and Europe, with biofuels adding growth in Brazil, Indonesia, India and other key markets.
Renewables’ share of energy used globally to provide heat for buildings and industry is set to increase from 14% to 18% over the forecast period.
Coal, a major contributor to global warming, was still the world’s largest individual source of energy generation in 2024, a position it has held for more than 50 years, according to the International Energy Agency.
China remains way ahead in clean energy growth, adding more solar and wind capacity than the rest of the world combined. This enabled the growth in renewable generation in China to outpace rising electricity demand and helped reduce its fossil fuel generation by 2%.
In a related development another study by energy think tank Ember said worldwide solar and wind power generation has outpaced electricity demand this year, and for the first time on record, renewable energies combined generated more power than coal. Ember says global solar generation grew by a record 31% in the first half of the year, while wind generation grew by 7.7%.
The study released on Tuesday says solar and wind generation combined grew by more than 400 terawatt hours, which was more than overall global demand increased in the same period. The findings suggest it is possible for the world to wean off polluting sources of power — even as demand for electricity skyrockets — with continued investment in renewables, including solar, wind, hydropower, bioenergy, and geothermal energies. “That means that they can keep up the pace with growing appetite for electricity worldwide,” said Małgorzata Wiatros-Motyka, senior electricity analyst at Ember and lead author of the study.
Renewable energy overtook coal as the world’s leading source of electricity in the first half of this year – a historic first, according to new data from the global energy think tank Ember. Electricity demand is growing around the world but the growth in solar and wind was so strong it met 100% of the extra electricity demand, even helping drive a slight decline in coal and gas use.
However, Ember says the headlines mask a mixed global picture. Developing countries, especially China, led the clean energy charge but richer nations including the US and EU relied more than before on planet-warming fossil fuels for electricity generation.
-URN. Give us feedback on this story through our email: kamwokyatimes@gmail.com
